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A Joosr Guide to… Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner

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We all make forecasts in our daily lives, whether we're investing in the stock market or simply planning our weekly food shop. These forecasts shape our future, but unfortunately we aren't very good at making them. So what can we do to improve our predictive abilities?

Superforecasting reveals the predictive skills you need to make more accurate forecasts and how to hone in on these skills, using them to your advantage in your daily life. Anyone can predict the future-we just need to learn from the experts: the superforecasters.

You will learn:

· What makes a good superforecaster

· The common mistakes people make when trying to make a prediction

· How to harness the power of the superforecasters.
Эта книга сейчас недоступна
19 бумажных страниц
Год выхода издания
2016
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Цитаты

  • Irina Gosselinkцитирует6 лет назад
    Most of the tasks we complete in life are learned through a similar technique: try, fail, analyze, adjust, try again.
  • Irina Gosselinkцитирует6 лет назад
    This approach works well in any scenario: simply consider the average, then adjust it according to any additional or unique information that you have.
  • Irina Gosselinkцитирует6 лет назад
    Whenever you make a prediction, always remember that no event or situation is entirely unique.

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