The point is that to play this market timing game well even once, you need to be right twice: First you need to call the high. Then you need to call the low. And you must be able to do this repeatedly. The world is filled with sad investors who got the first right and then sat on the sidelines while the market recovered and marched right on past its old high.
Market timing is an un-winnable game over time. How can I be so sure?
Simple:
The person who could reliably do this would be far richer than Warren Buffett, and twice as lionized.
Nothing, and I mean nothing, would be more profitable than this ability. That’s what makes it so seductive. That’s why gurus constantly claim they can do it, even if only a tiny bit. Nobody can. Not really. Not in any consistently useful way. Believing in Santa Claus is more profitable. Breeding unicorns is more likely