How Not to Be Wrong : The Power of Mathematical Thinking
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- cisilia gebyделится впечатлением6 лет назад
👍Worth reading
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- skarlawnsцитирует2 года назад
judging a decade’s worth of mutual funds by the ones that still exist at the end of the ten years is like judging our pilots’ evasive maneuvers by counting the bullet holes in the planes that come back. - skarlawnsцитирует2 года назадthere’s no reason at all to expect the planes to have an equal likelihood of survival no matter where they get hit.
for example, in covid patients admitted to hospital with common shared symptoms, does it mean said symptoms were the most lethal?
- skarlawnsцитирует2 года назад“What assumptions are you making? And are they justified?”
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